On the Eve of Artificial Minds

I review recent technological, empirical, and theoretical developments related to building sophisticated cognitive machines. I suggest that rapid growth in robotics, brain-like computing, new theories of large-scale functional modeling, and financial resources directed at this goal means that there will soon be a significant increase in the abilities of artificial minds. I propose a specific timeline for this development over the next fifty years and argue for its plausibility. I highlight some barriers to the development of this kind of technology, and discuss the ethical and philosophical consequences of such a development. I conclude that researchers in this field, governments, and corporations must take care to be aware of, and willing to discuss, both the costs and benefits of pursuing the construction of artificial minds.