Inference to the Best Prediction1 Introduction2 Active inference and hypothesis testing2.1 The abductive brain2.2 Sophisticated falsificationism, active inference, and model disambiguation2.3 Science as control or science as discovery?3 Perceptual presence and counterfactual richness 3.1 Presence and objecthood together3.2 Presence and objecthood apart3.3 Causal encapsulation and embodiment4 Conclusions